We’re now entering ‘storm season’
The classic time you expect storms is arriving. What is in store?
The classic time of the year in the central U.S. known as ‘storm season’ is upon us, and it’s time to get serious about what is in store.
For the first 5 or so days in March, things are going to be relatively quiet — but that starts to change by this next weekend as a storm system draws moisture northwards.
This should result in severe weather becoming more possible across the easternmost portions of the Plains with a growing threat of major wildfires on the western portions of the Plains. As a sidenote, we’re expecting this year’s fire season to be particularly nasty with severe drought ongoing and intensifying into early Spring.
The hotspot for severe weather in the second week of March will likely be concentrated further south and east with periodic systems drawing up moisture and touching off severe weather from Eastern OK down into Texas and further east.
There are some signs that, as we head into the middle portions of the month, the pattern could really increase across portions of the South as you’d expect this time of the year. This is the area we actually don’t like storm chasing — but it may be the favored area for severe weather in the first 1/2 of the month.
Moving beyond mid-month and overall, March looks drier for the Great Plains portion of tornado alley and perhaps less so for the South. This probably means that storm chase days on the Great Plains will be harder to come by in March.
The Rest of the Season — Update!
Most climo models continue to show a very dry early Spring on the Great Plains which will undoubtedly lead to a major fire season this year. Both March and April do look drier overall — which would mean fewer overall storm chase days in the early season on the Plains. The signals do become more mixed in May before returning to a heavy dry bias in June.
This probably means the season is slower in terms of storm chase day pacing on the Plains at least initially, with quick moving and moisture starved storm systems early in the season. These will possibly touch off more significant severe weather in the south but less so over the open Plains. There will likely be large breaks in between Plains storm chase days from March into April.
As always, there will eventually be severe weather threats for the Plains — and it only takes one really well-timed period of troughing to change the character of a season. We’ll be watching.