So far the pattern has been pretty dormant for the Fall season with risks staying north of the central and southern Plains into the Southwest. Tomorrow could be a chance at some severe storms along a sagging front in Kansas and there’s just enough of everything to indicate a rogue supercell could take shape with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
High-res models have storms forming in the late afternoon and evening from Eastern Colorado into Kansas. Some models like the HRRR hint at the possibility of a supercell (a rotating storm) in Kansas tomorrow.
A forecast model sounding for tomorrow does indicate a decent amount of 0-6km bulk shear at 35 knots. The low-level wind field is pretty weak but southerly storm motions will enhance that relatively somewhat. The straight line on the hodograph is worrisome for getting a supercell, but the SSE storm motions may help there. It does not look like a photogenic storm producing hodograph though to be sure. Storm bases should be relatively high with an 87/59 spread. It’s a pretty low-end day, but as the months turn to September and onwards into winter we take what we can get.
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