It is not unusual to have severe weather setups at the end of February in the U.S. — it is unusual to have severe weather setups in Northern Illinois and Indiana in late February. Nevertheless, here we are.
What We’re Looking At
Simply put, tomorrow’s setup has us pretty intrigued to follow along from the home base on the Southern Plains/Southwest U.S.
The Bottom Line on Tomorrow: Models continue trending downwards on storm coverage, so there will be fewer overall storms tomorrow if that is to be believed. It makes sense with a slightly slower system ejection and a more robust overall cap. Still, there will be severe weather tomorrow, and it won’t be shocking to find out there was a tornado or two out of this. We’ll be monitoring with all of you — we might even try to go live in the evening to talk about everything happening.
This Weekend
Most folks reading this newsletter are from the Central and Southern Plains, so this next bit is far more interesting.
A system will eject out into the middle of the country and draw moisture northwards. Dry air will be surging out of the Southwest, setting the stage for our first legit dryline of the Spring season on Sunday afternoon (3/3).
It is far too early to get into specifics about a setup that is just about five and a half days away. But this is an intriguing possibility for the first chase of 2024. Several questions need to be resolved, such as whether we will even have a storm. Will the storm system slow? Shift north? Will the moisture be as high as models project?
Simply put, this is just a heads up that we may be heading into the Spring storm season right on cue, as the start of Meteorological Spring is March 1.
For the first time, I think ever, I went into a storm chase in New Mexico expecting a tornado (May 26, 2023). On this day, the target was straightforward. I drove out of my neighborhood in Albuquerque, hit I-40, and got east of the mountains. From there the chase was on, and I then saw two incredible supercells and a couple of picturesque tornadoes.
I'd like you to please watch how the chase unfolded in the video above.